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National Weather Service: Fire Weather Outlook

National Weather Service: Fire Weather Outlook
April 05
06:28 2021

April edition of the monthly fire weather outlook for the 2021 season

Key Points:

Current drought status: Near to below average precipitation in March has allowed severe to exceptional drought conditions to continue across northern Arizona.

Fuel Conditions: Energy Release Component (ERC): ERCs are generally near average for this time of year.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks:

April – Odds favor drier than average conditions near the Arizona/Utah border. Otherwise, equal chances exist for above, near, or below normal precipitation across the rest of the state. Odds favor warmer than average conditions across Arizona.

April through June – Odds will continue to favor drier than average conditions near the Arizona/Utah border. Otherwise, equal chances exist for above, near, or below normal precipitation across the rest of the state. Odds favor warmer than average conditions across Arizona.

July through September – The extended outlook favors above normal temperatures, with odds tilted in favor of a wetter than average monsoon season across Arizona.

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook: Above normal fire threats look to develop at lower elevations (SE AZ into Yavapai County) in April, with above normal fire threat spreading north across all of Arizona by May and June. With wetter than average conditions favored by July, the significant wildland fire potential should become normal by then.

Summary:

Current drought status: Near to below average precipitation in March has allowed severe to exceptional drought conditions to continue across northern Arizona.

Fuel Conditions: Energy Release Component (ERC): ERCs are generally near average for this time of year.

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks: April – Odds favor drier than average conditions near the Arizona/Utah border. Otherwise, equal chances exist for above, near, or below normal precipitation across the rest of the state. Odds favor warmer than average conditions across Arizona.

April through June – Odds will continue to favor drier than average conditions near the Arizona/Utah border. Otherwise, equal chances exist for above, near, or below normal precipitation across the rest of the state. Odds favor warmer than average conditions across Arizona.

July through September – The extended outlook favors above normal temperatures, with odds tilted in favor of a wetter than average monsoon season across Arizona.

Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook: Above normal fire threats look to develop at lower elevations (SE AZ into Yavapai County) in April, with above normal fire threat spreading north across all of Arizona by May and June. With wetter than average conditions favored by July, the significant wildland fire potential should become normal by then.

National Weather Service: Fire Weather Outlook - overview

Summary: National Weather Service April edition of the monthly fire weather outlook for the 2021 season

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